Let's Go Walzing
As a Minnesotan, I suppose I’m duty bound to comment on the fact that Tim Walz is now potentially going to be the Vice President of these United States.
I was disappointed in this pick, honestly, but not because I thought it was a bad one. I think it’s an excellent pick by Harris, but I really want to keep him as Governor. Also, I still think Harris may lose, despite the media buzz of the last few weeks, and I’d rather not have him shackled to a sinking ship.
On top of that, even if Harris wins, I think her administration is positioning itself to be rather conservative, pro-corporation, and pro-Wall Street. While Walz has always been a friend to Labor and a longstanding union member, this will mostly be used, I think, as a cover to bring us back to more of an Obama era economy.
Some of you reading that may be excited by the prospect, but I am not. And I don’t like the idea of Walz as VP used to usher that in.
But that’s what a VP is for, sadly. Their influence on the administration they’re tied to is usually minimal. They become a punching bag and a shiteater for whatever the president does.
This goes back to the founding of the country, sadly, hilariously. John Adams was none too pleased with his irrelevance in George Washington’s administration, especially when compared to Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson.
Anyway, if you’re curious about Walz’ record as Governor, MN Reformer and my former neighbor did a nice summary.
I voted for Walz twice and I’d most likely vote for him again as governor. That doesn’t mean he’s my ideal politician or that he’s a perfect candidate, but I think he’s likely the best MN governor of my lifetime. He handled the 2020 crises well enough, I think, and he’s passed the most progressive slate of policies with a single vote majority, proving that he’s an effective governor and that he’s actively interested in governance.
The people of California and New York may wonder why their huge Democrat majorities don’t lead to progressive policies.
And so I like Walz. I prefer someone who is committed to action, to governing. If they make the wrong choices, we can push on that and make a correction. But you can’t do anything like that if your politicians are primarily interested in longevity.
You see, doing things might be unpopular. And that’s the worst thing to many careerist politicians. If they do something and it ends up being unpopular, well, then they might lose the next election! Best to just sit on it and beg for another electoral victory while promising to finally, this time, to do something.
That was Biden’s pitch, after all.
Typically, the VP is a completely unimportant part of the presidential election, unless they become a liability, like Sarah Palin and potentially JD Vance. The general idea is that a VP is used to lock down some region of the country or maybe an identity. It’s often why a Democrat nominee might pick a southern Democrat as their running mate.
I think people still believe this is true but I actually don’t think it matters at all. Most people relate to US politics at the national level at this point with very little consideration for their local governance unless they show up on CNN or Fox News or whatever. You see this with the outsized reaction AOC or Marjorie Taylor Greene get from people across the political spectrum.
So I don’t think the strategy of locking down a senator or governor from a swing state is really useful the way it once was. People don’t think of politics in this regional way anymore. We also don’t think of it in terms of various practicalities like we once did.
We wanted a president to have some military experience. Being a governor was good training for the presidency because it demonstrated experience in governing a large state apparatus with an economy comparable to entire other nations.
People don’t really seem to care about these things anymore, or maybe it’s better to say that our pundit class no longer spends time talking about this sort of thing. But I remember both topics being very important in the 2000 election because I guess I’ve become old.
I do think this election is slightly unique, owing to the weaknesses of the people at the top of each ticket. Trump is historically unpopular and deliberately divisive. Harris dropped out of the 2020 race in an embarrassing display.
Let Fandom Swallow You Whole
Before we get into today’s essay, I want to share a piece of political good news.
Because of this, the VP seems to matter a whole lot more this election. Add to that the fact that the Democrats skipped a primary and it feels like the stakes of the VP matter.
And Walz exploded into the nation’s consciousness because of a devastating off the cuff body blow when he called Republicans weird. I found this very funny and very effective, as did everyone, apparently. The GOP has struggled with ways to combat it that don’t feel extremely weird, and Vance especially can’t seem to stop himself from appearing like a little freak with an anger problem.
Tim Walz’ appeal is that he appears to be a very normal person. He’s not flush with investments and stocks. He’s not some Ivy League lawyer from a wealthy family, nor did he spend time as a lobbyist or investment banker or venture capitalist. He was in the coast guard and a teacher for a few decades in small towns.
After retiring from the military, he joined Congress and voted to end the Iraq War. He was against the Wall Street bailouts as well. Of course, you can look up his voting record as well and see what you think of him.
But he is exciting in a way that no one else in this race is. Trump is Trump and people who are into Trump will vote for him. Harris will get the Blue No Matter Who crowd. Vance will bring in the 4chan weirdos. But Walz seems to actually have broad appeal.
This is neutered a bit because he’s the running mate and not the nominee. We’re not getting a Walz presidency if he wins. We’re getting a Harris presidency.
I’ve been convinced Trump was going to be president again since about the middle of 2021 or 2022—who remembers? I especially thought this was true after the debates.
And I still think it’s his race to lose, honestly. I’m predicting a rather low turnout, which is a benefit to conservatives in the Electoral College (I could say much more about this but that would take a completely different essay so I’ll leave it like this—the Democrats are a party collapsing and without an Electoral Strategy but also an unwillingness to jettison the Electoral College).
However, Trump is kind of flailing at his showings. He’s also making fewer rallies. I think the loss of Steve Bannon’s populist message is really showing this time, since Trump is no longer talking about bankers and jobs and manufacturing. His pitch this time is just that he’s Trump, which will certainly be enough for a lot of people. But I don’t think it’s something that will work to convince anyone who’s not already all in.
And so while I have no excitement for a corporate and Wall St friendly president, especially if she does fire Lina Khan and gut the FTC like her billionaire friends are demanding, I do think she may manage to win because of how poorly Trump is showing.
The fact that Trump and Vance have both announced that they won’t debate feels like an infantile sign of weakness. The fact that Trump is just sending Vance to campaign by himself while he does whatever he does with his time feels like a huge miss too.
Vance has no charisma. Trump is all charisma.
People show up to see Trump riff for an hour but no one wants to see Vance talk for even ten minutes and so he’s largely showing up to empty parking lots and rooms.
It’s possible Trump is positioning it this way so that he can blame the loss on Vance and wipe his hands clean of the whole affair. That would be very much his style, in that it would be hilarious and humiliating to Vance while also kneecapping Vance’s political future.
The last month has turned this election from a disaster into quite an interesting run. I’m curious to see how it all spills out over the next few months, though my expectations are low.
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From over here in New Zealand - it feels like there are now some actual humans running against the freak show that is Trump. This is encouraging.
Interesting that you feel that this is still Trump's to lose. I feel differently.
I'm not excited about Harris. I don't think she's a great candidate. But, I do think that the shakeup that has happened will excite a lot of people and get them up to vote just to be part of history... and I think those people are likely to vote Harris. I am predicting there will be high turnout, and Harris will do better than polls suggest.
I mean, I was going to go vote, but leave the top of the ticket blank because I sure as hell wasn't voting for another old white man. Now, however, I will vote for Harris. I suspect there are others like me, and others like what I described above, who will just be more aware and more excited now that this shakeup has happened.
But we'll see. I am just as likely to be totally wrong.